The Trump administration imposed tariffs on 60 economies it says have inadequate bans on products made with forced labour, arguing that is unfair to US workers. Economies with unenforced laws or no laws face tariffs of 10 to 12.5%. New Zealand, lacking an explicit ban, was hit with 12.5%.

It depends who you ask. Chief trade negotiator Jameson Greer says it reflects Trump's longstanding concern dating to his first term. David Lynch says it feels like a search for a legal justification so the president can do what he always wanted after the Supreme Court threw out his earlier tariffs.

In February the Supreme Court ruled the emergency IEPA tariffs were outside the president's constitutional authority, in other words illegal. The administration then imposed time-limited 10% Section 122 tariffs as a stopgap while it ran the investigations required under other trade laws to impose permanent replacements.

More durable, David Lynch says, though not immune. Section 301 of a 1974 trade law is well-established delegated authority, provided the president investigates, reports, takes public comments and then imposes tariffs, as he did. The Liberty Justice Center, which won the IEPA case, has challenged them, but it will be a closer call.

Chances are pretty good, because the IEPA tariffs were found illegal, which Lynch likens to the president picking your pocket. Exporters can file with the Customs and Border Protection Agency for a refund, and the government has already refunded tens of billions of dollars with a good bit more to do.

Substance and style. For decades Trump has genuinely believed other countries take advantage of the US on trade, one of the few issues, with immigration, he truly cares about. Tariffs also let him act alone without Congress, as when he demanded all trade with Spain be cut off at a NATO meeting.

Lynch says friendship counts until it doesn't; Trump has no permanent friends or allies. China has arguably been treated better than Canada, where jibes about a 51st state cost billions in tourism. Even the EU, which struck a deal, faces new tariff threats over its fine against Google.

Trump backed off the most draconian tariffs from April 2025 after the market reaction and others were negotiated down. Oil around $100 hurt less than feared because the US is now a net energy exporter thanks to fracking, and inventories in China, Japan and elsewhere proved larger than expected.

Energy markets are getting nervous. Inventories have been drawn down so far that major economies are running on fumes, so further escalation or quiet tanker traffic through Hormuz will pinch. US gas prices are back above $4 a gallon, worsening voter anger over high prices before the midterms.